Given that the rest of Europe and many other parts of the world are currently experiencing either flash floods or sweltering heat, I found myself pondering whether this pattern is significant and if we are truly witnessing our planet’s abuse. In my search for answers, I came across several articles that claimed climate change was merely an illusory depiction, and this intrigued me.

To investigate further, I delved into this assumption to discern whether there was any truth to it or if it was all a fabrication. During my research, I stumbled upon the Milanković Model. But who exactly is Mr. Milanković?

Milutin Milanković, a scientist, developed his theory of climate change driven by orbital variations, now known as the Milanković cycles, in the early 20th century. He first proposed his hypothesis in the 1920s (yes the 1920’s) and continued refining and expanding upon it over the years. His most significant work on this subject was published in his book “Mathematical Climatology and the Astronomical Theory of Climate Changes” in 1941. Milanković’s research laid the foundation for understanding the long-term climate variations driven by orbital factors.

The Milanković model involves three primary components:

1. Eccentricity: This refers to the variation in the shape of Earth’s orbit around the Sun, which can change from more circular (low eccentricity) to more elongated (high eccentricity) over a period of around 100,000 years.
2. Obliquity: This refers to changes in Earth’s axial tilt, which can vary between approximately 22.1 and 24.5 degrees over a cycle of around 41,000 years. The tilt affects the distribution of sunlight received by different latitudes and influences the seasonality of climate.
3. Precession: This refers to the wobbling or precession of Earth’s axis, similar to a spinning top, with a cycle of around 26,000 years. This wobble changes the timing of the seasons, impacting the amount of sunlight received by different regions during different seasons.

While the Milanković cycles offer an explanation for some climate changes observed over the past 2.5 million years, they are not sufficient to account for the ongoing rapid warming of the Earth since the pre-Industrial era. Particularly since the mid-20th century, scientists attribute the current period of significant warming to human activities, specifically the increased levels of carbon dioxide released into the Earth’s atmosphere from the combustion of fossil fuels. This is the primary cause of the observed warming, as supported by scientific consensus.

Since the Industrial Age began, the level of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere has significantly risen, increasing by 47 percent from around 280 ppm to 412 ppm. In the past two decades alone, carbon dioxide has risen by 11 percent.

Scientists have a strong understanding that this surge in carbon dioxide is primarily a result of human activities, supported by the distinctive “fingerprint” left by carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels, which can be measured using instruments. Since 1850, the global average temperature of the Earth has climbed by over 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit). Scientific assessments further indicate that by as early as 2030, Earth is projected to experience an additional warming of about half a degree Celsius (almost a degree Fahrenheit).

This relatively swift warming caused by human activities is occurring alongside the gradual climate changes driven by Milanković cycles. However, climate models demonstrate that the impact of Milanković cycles is overshadowed when the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere surpasses approximately 350 ppm, emphasizing the dominance of human-induced forces on Earth’s climate.

Currently, Earth is in an interglacial period, characterized by a relatively milder climate between Ice Ages. If there were no human impacts on climate, Earth’s current orbital positions within the Milanković cycles would suggest a trajectory of cooling instead of warming. This would align with a prolonged cooling trend that commenced approximately 6,000 years ago.

The reality is that there is a problem to solve, and we should strive to keep our only home in the same state or better than we found it.

I have sifted through multiple sources to gain these insights on this subject and have compiled what I understood in this article. If you wish to learn more, I recommend a recent book I devoured, “How the World Really Works” which neatly encapsulates trends, macroeconomics, and more in a portable-sized format.

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